D.O.M OFF THE SCALE

April 11, 2011

Days on market off the scale

One often unheralded piece of interesting data, is the days on market of the remaining or unsold stock. The Real Estate Institutes talk about days on market as 69 or whatever it is, that is not really true.

That only measures the days that a collection of listings takes to sell with the agent that has the listing.

Example: Let’s say that one of the properties in Applecross that has been on the market 717 days (That’s right nearly 2 years) changes agents and sells first day with ABCD Realty for example, REIWA shows that as an official stat. of days on market 1 day. The real figure is 718 days. So actually sales figures are false, as many properties in this market sell with a second agent, and so therefore the total time on the market with the first agent is wiped off. (Convenient as it makes many sellers, property owners and even agents have a false sense of what the market is really doing)

LOOK AT THESE STATS ( as at today)

1) APPLECROSS: ALL ON THE MARKET STOCK

a. 158 plus properties

b. 170.1 days on market

c. Average price of market $2,111,055

d. Total sales 2010 Applecross 99

e. Therefore there is more than 18 months stock on market

MY ADVICE

1) BUYERS: If you are cash or pre-approved then you will buy well. If you make a reasonable offer, rather than a silly or insulting one, you can expect to buy very well. Be prepared to allow the seller time to come to terms with your offer as in many cases the owners will be expecting more.

2) SELLERS: Be pragmatic. Look at all offers on merit. If you get cash offers close to what you want, ignore them at your own risk, there may be no other offers and certainly there may not be any better by waiting.

3) ASPIRATIONAL SELLERS: It is simple, unless you want to or need to sell within 90 days, in this market, then don’t. It is the wrong market to be cute, or be testing the market.

THE FUTURE

Will the market improve? No doubt, but the big question is when? No one knows. It could be 6 months, a year, 2 years. The talk around is that the medium term is probably more tough times, flat at best. Great time to buy, jump in now, sellers, take the money and move on, aspirational sellers, do it now if you are happy to accept the market is what it is, and you will make it up on the one you buy and on the next cycle.

Thank you and see you in the market place..IB (Ed)